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Job Specification
Position Title: FORECASTING SPECIALIST
Job Code: AMAPCEO - Ecomcs Stat Ama Unit PEC17, 17PEC
Job ID: 21667

Purpose of Position:
To conduct research, statistical analysis and participate in the development of econometric forecasting models, data bases, and quantitative analysis tools related to the forecasting of post-secondary education/training enrolment patterns to support evidence based medium to long term ministry program planning/funding decisions and capital project funding recommendations/priorities. To provide research, data gathering, data base maintenance, and statistical analysis services for a variety of unit/branch projects and activities.

Duties/Responsibilities:
Within the Research and Planning Branch mandate to be a centre of expertise in labour market and postsecondary education information, provide long-term demand, capital planning and coordination of inter-jurisdictional relations for MTCU, the position:

1. Conducts economic and statistical analysis to support a broad range of unit projects/activities related to the forecasting of medium to long term post-secondary education/training enrolment across Ontario. Participates in the identification, documentation and analysis of economic and post-secondary enrolment data from various internal and external. Assists in the definition of research studies, conducts focussed information/data searches, compiles and assesses information for suitability to project objectives and requirements, and applies appropriate research methods and procedures.

2. Participates in the design, development and implementation of a medium to long term econometric enrolment forecasting model that takes into consideration the many factors and assumptions that influence postsecondary (including apprenticeship) enrolment demand in Ontario, and supports program planning and the analysis of financial impacts and effectiveness of policy options.

3. Participates in the development and maintenance of computerized databases of internal and external data sources relevant to post-secondary education/training program planning and funding. Ensures accuracy of data and recommends methods of data collection. Operates computer database systems and models used to make medium to long term forecasts of post-secondary education and training program enrolment.

4. Conducts analysis and prepares statistical summaries and reports of enrolment trends in post-secondary education and training programs to support the identification and analysis of reasons for increased post-secondary education/training demand province-wide and in various regions within Ontario.

5. Assists project teams in coordinating stakeholder consultation processes. Attends consultation meetings, takes notes, and prepares summaries of information and decisions resulting from these meetings. Determines and conducts follow-up information research and information dissemination as required.

6. Provides analytical input to the design, development and implementation of a ministry Capital Planning process to support the development of funding recommendations/priorities for post-secondary capital projects across the province (e.g. maintenance, upgrade and expansion of buildings/facilities).

7. Conducts information research/analysis to support the preparation of research/statistical summaries and projections, environmental scan reports, background materials, option papers, business cases, briefing notes, and presentation materials.

8. Develops and maintains effective working relationships and networks with unit/branch/division management/staff, other divisions within the ministry, and stakeholders outside of the ministry to gather and exchange information.

9. Maintains knowledge/awareness of research trends, data gathering techniques, and new data/information sources/tools, assesses implications for unit/branch information/data requirements, and recommends options to support unit/branch objectives, projects and activities.

10. Participates on branch, division, ministry and inter-ministry committees and project teams, as assigned by the Manager, Planning.

Knowledge:
Position requires knowledge of economic and statistical research, data gathering and information/data analysis principles, methods and techniques to conduct information/data research and analysis to support unit projects. Knowledge of research theory/methods and quantitative statistical analysis methods/techniques to research data and conduct analysis of post-secondary enrollment data and related economic information, determine inter-relationships, make forecasts and project estimates. Knowledge of ministry objectives/policies pertaining to the post-secondary education/training sectors in Ontario to participate as a member of project teams, conduct information research/analysis, and provide reports to support division/branch/unit objectives. Knowledge of information/data sources and information gathering techniques and tools to identify relevant information for each project, and gather/summarize and conduct information/data analysis. Well developed research and analytical skills to assess a range of information sources and conduct in-depth research/analysis to provide comprehensive information support to projects/unit activities. Consultation and interpersonal skills to develop strong working relationships with a broad group of internal and external stakeholders, and to work effectively in a team environment. Planning, organizing and coordinating skills to effectively prioritize work, develop work plans, keep branch management/staff informed on progress of tasks/projects, and meet project deadlines. Written communication skills to write information summaries and analysis reports, and to contribute to project reports, branch briefings, and presentation materials. Oral communication skills to liaise with internal/external contacts and gather research information. Proficiency in the use of data management, spreadsheet, presentation and word processing software to access data, operate systems/models, participate in the development of computerized data bases, and prepare information/analysis summaries and reports.

Judgement:
Position works under the general supervision of the Manager, Planning with technical direction from senior unit staff, and within division/branch/unit objectives and relevant policies, procedures and guidelines. Judgement is exercised in conducting economic/statistical information/data research and analysis to support unit projects/activities. Judgement is exercised by determining research priorities and organizing requirements, and ensuring deliverables meet established project deadlines. The position exercises judgement by identifying/selecting information sources to meet the information requirements of specific projects, and ensuring the accuracy of data bases. The position exercises judgement by assessing and interpreting data, conducting analysis, and preparing written assessments of research/analysis results. The position exercises judgement by recommending new information/data sources, information gathering techniques and research methods to support unit/branch activities. Judgement is exercised in conducting research/analysis to support the development of econometric models, unit analysis reports on forecasted post-secondary education/training enrolment, and drafting documents as input to unit reports and briefing materials.

Accountability - Programs:
The position is accountable to conduct economic/statistical information/data research and analysis to support unit/branch projects and activities related to the medium to long term forecasting of post-secondary education/training enrolment to support evidence based program planning/funding decisions. The position participates in projects for the design and development of econometric enrollment forecasting models and data bases. The position is accountable for ensuring the accuracy of data on unit databases. The position contributes to the preparation of unit reports, briefing notes and related presentation materials.

Accountability - Impact of Errors:
Errors in judgement related to the research and analysis of information/data, or the provision of information/analysis results to unit/branch management/staff could result in inaccurate information as the basis for senior management decision making, and could have a negative impact on the accurate forecasting of post-secondary education/training enrolment.

Contact - Internal:
Frequent contact with management/staff in the unit/branch/division to provide research information/data and analysis results to support projects/activities. Regular contact with unit/branch senior management to provide information briefings and interpret research findings. Regular contact with other ministries to coordinate consultation meetings and research/exchange information. Participates on branch/division/ministry committees and project teams.

Contact - External:
Regular contact with key stakeholders such as university/college enrolment associations and Statistics Canada to research/gather information.